H&M: Drops of footfall for June 2024

H&M’s share price dropped more than 14% after the company reported its second-quarter earnings. While operating profits of $672 million had exceeded the year prior, it was below what was anticipated ($679 million). Off the back of this news, shadows of doubt were cast for June as H&M believed bad weather would dampen sales for the month. The expectation was a decline of 6%, compared with the same period last year.

Now that June has passed, we’ve looked at the foot traffic data of US-based H&M stores to see if the rain truly did ruin this global retailer’s parade. 

Comparing store performance with foot traffic data 

The graph shows a pretty straightforward story. Foot traffic this year isn’t even in the same league as last year. Not one week in June 2023 had visits below 200,000, but in 2024. visits barely eclipsed 150,000 in three of the five weeks. H&M was not exaggerating their expectations for this month: they took a plunge.  

Taking a closer look: New York City

But do individual stores tell the same story? It’s not like there’s a storm cloud over every H&M store, right? We looked at the footfall distribution among five of the top-performing H&M retail stores in New York City to see if that was the case. 

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We don’t need to tell you that NYC is one of the largest and most popular cities in the world. Tourists from all over come to the Big Apple, have a hotdog, see Lady Liberty, and buy a Yankees hat on the way out.

Looking at the five pie charts, you can see slight variations in total visits, with an average capture rate of around 5% of visitors from the foot traffic near our store points of interest (POIs).

These H&M stores are situated in prime locations, attracting thousands of visitors daily. Capturing 5% of the foot traffic at these sites demonstrates that the stores continue to draw shoppers, even with reduced overall footfall.

Analyzing the foot traffic data from last year, it's evident that June 2023 was a particularly successful month for NYC H&M stores, with foot traffic surpassing the national average by a significant margin. Moreover, while the 2024 numbers are lower, they remain above the national averages for 2023 and 2024.

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Stores in popular tourist areas tend to weather adverse conditions better. Even with fewer people on the streets of New York, these stores still capture a substantial portion of the available foot traffic.

So yes, external factors, like weather, have impacted sales in June. Unfortunately for H&M, that’s something outside of their control. 

What foot traffic also tells us

All that said, weather isn’t the sole catalyst that caused a drop in sales this past June. It’s not like every day that month was raining cats and dogs with tornadoes throwing cows in the air. H&M’s operating profits didn’t meet what was expected for their second quarter, and so our analysis of foot traffic in June supports a major reason why: People are spending less.

For a long time, H&M was one of the main fast fashion retailers, but in recent years, stores like Shein, with extremely low prices, make the likes of H&M or Zara look rather pricey in comparison. Many consumers have also fully abandoned fast fashion, opting instead to be more selective about what they purchase. Just as the luxury sector experienced a slowdown in the post-pandemic era, so too have other sectors, fast fashion included. 

Beyond these factors, inflation, higher living costs, and slow wage gains have cooled spending behavior. H&M has also had to face increasing purchasing costs for materials, forcing them to raise prices, as well as factors well beyond their control like foreign currency exchange. Brands like H&M and others are starting to feel these effects, making the second-half of the year a greater undertaking than what was expected. 

Further analysis would be required, but it’s also possible that in the past year, competitors opened stores near H&M stores, drawing traffic from H&M into their stores. 

We’re interested to see how H&M’s strategy plays out, and will keep an eye on these foot traffic patterns in the months to come. 

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